Teen Substance-Use Prediction in ABCD: Stable Signals, Small Effects
A 2026 ABCD Study preprint involving 11,868 youth found stable time-ordered predictors of teen substance-use initiation, but the adjusted effects were small: most estimates ranged from −0.01 to 0.02 initiation-probability points per 1-SD predictor increase. Research Highlights Large ABCD panel: Wei et al. analyzed 11,868 youth with repeated observations and interval-level initiation outcomes for alcohol, …